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Extreme Storm Surges: a Comparative Study of Frequency Analysis Approaches : Volume 1, Issue 6 (19/11/2013)

By Hamdi, Y.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004019058
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 40
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Extreme Storm Surges: a Comparative Study of Frequency Analysis Approaches : Volume 1, Issue 6 (19/11/2013)  
Author: Hamdi, Y.
Volume: Vol. 1, Issue 6
Language: English
Subject: Science, Natural, Hazards
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2013
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

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Hamdi, Y., Bardet, L., Rebour, V., & Duluc, C. (2013). Extreme Storm Surges: a Comparative Study of Frequency Analysis Approaches : Volume 1, Issue 6 (19/11/2013). Retrieved from http://community.ebooklibrary.org/


Description
Description: Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, BP17, 92 262 Fontenay aux Roses Cedex, France. In France, nuclear facilities were designed to very low probabilities of failure. Nevertheless, exceptional climatic events have given rise to surges much larger than observations (outliers) and had clearly illustrated the potential to underestimate the extreme water levels calculated with the current statistical methods. The objective of the present work is to conduct a comparative study of three approaches including the Annual Maxima (AM), the Peaks-Over Threshold (POT) and the r-Largest Order Statistics (r-LOS). These methods are illustrated in a real analysis case study. All the data sets were screened for outliers. Non-parametric tests for randomness, homogeneity and stationarity of time series were used. The shape and scale parameters stability plots, the mean excess residual life plot and the stability of the standard errors of return levels were used to select optimal thresholds and r values for the POT and r-LOS method, respectively. The comparison of methods was based on: (i) the uncertainty degrees, (ii) the adequacy criteria and tests and (iii) the visual inspection. It was found that the r-LOS and POT methods have reduced the uncertainty on the distributions parameters and return level estimates and have systematically shown values of the 100 and 500 yr return levels smaller than those estimated with the AM method. Results have also shown that none of the compared methods has allowed a good fitting at the right tail of the distribution in the presence of outliers. As a perspective, the use of historical information was proposed in order to increase the representativity of outliers in data sets. Findings are of practical relevance not only to nuclear energy operators in France, for applications in storm surge hazard analysis and flood management, but also for the optimal planning and design of facilities to withstand extreme environmental conditions, with an appropriate level of risk.

Summary
Extreme storm surges: a comparative study of frequency analysis approaches

Excerpt
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